AS 201 Reliance on Nuclear Power Plants in Japan
Nuclear power is presented as a quasi-domestic source that gives stable power at low operational cost and with low greenhouse gas profile. Nuclear power is an "important power source that supports the stability of the energy supply and demand structure," it said, though the degree of dependence on it should be reduced. Used fuel will receive more attention, and the nuclear fuel cycle will be promoted, including R&D on fast reactors.
In June 2015 the government's Plan for Electricity Generation to 2030 was approved. This had nuclear at 20-22% in 2030, renewables 22-24%, LNG 27% and coal 26%. It aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 21.9% by 2030 from the 2013 level, and to improve the energy self-sufficiency rate to 24.3%, from 6.3% in 2012.
In July 2015 the government approved the FY2014 Energy White paper (to March 2015). It showed that the percentage of power from fossil fuel had risen from 62% to 88% over four years, and the increased fuel cost due to nuclear shutdowns was JPY 2.3 trillion in FY2011, JPY 3.1 trillion in FY2012 and JPY 3.6 trillion in FY2013 (to March 2014). Household energy expenses had increased by an average of 13.7% over the four years.
In July 2017 the cabinet approved the draft Basic Concept on Nuclear Energy Use, developed over two years by JAEC, involving public consultation. It will provide a reference for future decisions about nuclear energy policy. It outlines eight priority activities in attaining the basic targets for using nuclear energy safely while promoting its benefits. JAEC’s previous policy advice was in July 2005 (see above), but it now plans to review and revise policy every five years.
The 5th Basic Energy Plan is being drafted in 2017, for approval in March 2018.
PWR restart applications: In July 2013 four utilities applied for restart of 12 PWR reactors at six sites, two of which – Ohi 3&4 – were already running on interim basis. The units covered by the applications were Kansai's Takahama units 3&4 and Ohi units 3&4; Hokkaido's Tomari units 1-3; Shikoku's Ikata unit 3, and Kyushu's Sendai 1&2 and Genkai 3&4. Gross capacity is 11,200 MWe, almost a quarter of the nation’s total. These were all among the units well advanced in NISA’s stress test assessments in 2012. In September 2013 the NRA was prioritising six PWR units: Tomari 3, Ikata 3, Sendai 1&2, Genkai 3&4 using four investigation teams with 80 staff. In May 2014 NRA added Takahama 3&4 to the priority list. In March 2015 Kansai applied to restart Mihama 3 PWR and Takahama 1&2 PWRs, all with increased seismic rating and tsunami assumptions. In November 2015 JAPC applied for a safety review of Tsuruga 2. Fuel was loaded in to Ikata 3 in June 2016, with 56 fresh fuel assemblies and 101 already-used assemblies (including 16 MOX ones). It restarted in August and resumed commercial operation in September.
Sendai 1 was the first reactor to restart and connect to the grid, in mid-August 2015, followed by Sendai 2 in October, Takahama 3 in February and Takahama 4 in March 2016. However, a district court injunction then forced Kansai to shut down the Takahama units. Pending resolution of the injunction, Kansai removed the fuel from both units. The Osaka High Court lifted the injunction in March 2017. The two Takahama units were re-loaded in April-May 2017, unit 4 with four MOX fuel assemblies among its 157, and unit 3 including 24 MOX assemblies. Unit 4 started up and was grid connected in May, unit 3 in June.
A district court earlier ordered Kansai not to restart Ohi 3&4 in Fukui prefecture due to public concerns. Kansai, with local government support, appealed the ruling. They now appear clear to restart early in 2018 following the mayor of Ohi giving his consent at the end of August 2017, and the prefecture governer approving in November 2017.
Kyushu Electric Power aims to restart Genkai 3 in January 2018 and Genkai 4 in March. In September 2017, the NRA began pre-operational inspections at Genkai 3.
BWR restart applications:
Tepco delayed its application for Kashiwazaki-Kariwa 6&7 ABWRs pending negotiation with local government, and lodged it in September 2013, lining up a further 2710 MWe gross. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa 6&7 units were the first BWRs to be put forward for restart. Unlike the 12 PWRs referred to above, BWRs require a filtered containment venting (FCV) system. Under the general terms of a nuclear operator's agreement with local government, prefectural approval is required for these because any use during an emergency would mean releasing radioactivity in the course of avoiding the kind of hydrogen build-up which caused the explosions at Fukushima, destroying the superstructure of three units there.
Tepco is setting up a new emergency response centre (ERC) near units 5, 6&7 at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, designed for 1.5 times the 1209 Gal peak ground acceleration assessed for that location (compared with 2300 Gal for the area of units 1-4). It expects the new ERC to be operational in mid-2018. Tepco said in May 2017 that it hopes to restart units 6&7 by March 2020, units 1 and 5 by March 2022, and to return units 3&4 to service by March 2025, then to restart unit 2 a year later. In October 2017 the NRA confirmed that units 6&7 met the new regulatory standards – the first BWRs to do so. While units 1, 6&7 have been shut since shortly after the Fukushima accident in 2011, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa 2, 3&4 have been shut since a major earthquake in Niigata prefecture on 16 July 2007.
In December 2013 Chugoku applied for assessment to restart its Shimane 2 reactor, and Tohoku applied for Onagawa 2, both also BWRs. Both companies had obtained local government approval for their applications. Chugoku also plans to apply for an assessment of the Shimane 3 ABWR, almost finished construction, once unit 2 is cleared to restart. J-Power in December 2014 applied for a safety assessment of its Ohma ABWR under construction. In February 2014 Chubu applied for approval to restart Hamaoka 4 BWR, following completion of a major sea wall. It applied to restart unit 3 there in June 2015, subject to completing work to conform with NRA regulations, local government agreement, and community acceptance. Seismic rating is 1200 Gal. Hamaoka 5 (1360 MWe ABWR) will not be ready to restart with the other two, due to a seawater leak through the condenser in May 2011 needing further remedy, and in 2016 an application for a safety review is expected. In May 2014 Japco applied to restart its Tokai 2 BWR, an older unit. In June Tohoku applied for restart of its relatively new Higashidori BWR, and in August Hokuriku applied for Shika 2 ABWR, the 8th BWR and 20th overall to then.
Status of restart applications and safety reviews
Type |
Utility |
Reactors |
Applied |
Final plan |
Notes |
PWR |
Kyushu |
Sendai 1&2 |
July 2013 |
Oct 2014 |
After NRA final approval and local govt approval, unit 1 connected to grid 14 August, unit 2 on 21 October 2015. |
|
Kansai |
Takahama 3&4 |
July 2013 |
Oct 2014 |
After NRA final approval and local govt approval, unit 3 grid connection 1/2/16. Unit 4 restarted end Feb 2016. Both then shut down due to court injunction. Removed fuel in Aug-Sept 2016. Injunction lifted March 2017. Reloading fuel from April 2016. Unit 4 restarted and grid connected in May 2017, unit 3 in June 2017. |
|
Shikoku |
Ikata 3 |
July 2013 |
April 2015, resubmit May 2015 and March 2016 |
Upgrade plan approved by NRA, NRA final approval, unanimous local govt. approval, agreed seismic rating Ss 1000 Gal. Back on grid 15 August 2016, commercial operation Sept 2016. |
|
Kansai |
Ohi 3 |
July 2013 |
|
After NRA and local govt approval, Ohi 3 restarted in March 2018. |
|
Kyushu |
Genkai 3 |
July 2013 |
|
After NRA and local govt approval, Kyushu announced April 2018 restart for Genkai 3. |
Operating total PWR: 7 (first five all 870-890 MWe gross, next ones 1180 MWe gross) |
|
||||
|
Kansai |
Ohi 4 |
July 2013 |
|
NRA approved upgrade plans, works completed, Ss increased to 856 Gal. NRA approved construction plans Aug 2017. Kansai hopes to restart mid-2018. |
|
Kyushu |
Genkai 4 |
July 2013 |
|
Seismic rating to 620 Gal, NRA approved upgrade plans Jan 2017, approval from local mayor, prefecture and governor. Aim to restart in 2018. |
|
Hokkaido |
Tomari 1-3 |
July 2013 |
|
Seismic approval finalised. |
|
Kansai |
Mihama 3 |
March 2015 |
|
NRA has approved upgrade plans (and given licence extension). Work program filed with NRA. |
|
Kansai |
Takahama 1&2 |
March 2015 |
|
NRA compliance approval, seismic rating Ss increased to 700 Gal, expect restart 2019 following licence extension. |
|
JAPC |
Tsuruga 2 |
November 2015 |
|
Company says ground motion Ss is 800 Gal, but NRA has expert report suggesting seismic problem. |
ABWR |
Tepco |
Kashiwazaki Kariwa 6&7 |
Sept 2013 |
|
NRA doing inspection, IAEA OSART review to mid-July 2015. Agreed Ss 1200 Gal for units 5-7 in Jan 2016. (2300 Gal proposed for southern part of site with units 1-4.) Revised application Aug 2017. Tepco expects restart April 2020. |
|
EPDC/ J-Power |
Ohma 1 (under construction) |
Dec 2014 |
|
NRA reviewing. |
BWR |
Chugoku |
Shimane 2 |
Dec 2013 |
|
NRA reviewing. |
|
Tohoku |
Onagawa 2 |
Dec 2013 |
|
NRA reviewing, Ss 1000 Gal agreed Aug 2017, construction work by March 2019. |
|
Chubu |
Hamaoka 4 |
Feb 2014 |
|
NRA reviewing, local govt opposed to restart. |
|
Chubu |
Hamaoka 3 |
June 2015 |
|
NRA reviewing. |
|
JAPC |
Tokai 2 |
May 2014 |
|
NRA reviewing, Ss 900 Gal agreed Oct 2016, needs seawall. Local governor opposed. Applied for licence extension. |
|
Tohoku |
Higashidori 1 |
June 2014 |
|
Question re faults nearby, construction work by March 2020. |
|
Hokuriku |
Shika 2 |
August 2014 |
|
Safety engineering work to March 2018, NRA review under way but concern re seismic fault. |
The reactor restarts are facing significant implementation costs ranging from US$700 million to US$1 billion per unit, regardless of reactor size or age. From FY 2011 to March 2017 the total cost is estimated at JPY 1900 billion ($17.4 billion) for eight companies, according to a JAIF survey. In FY 2015 the expenditures to meet new regulatory requirements were JPY 267 billion ($2.4 billion) – about one-quarter of total nuclear-related expenditures for six utilities. The NRA aimed to increase its relicensing staff to about 100 people, to shorten the envisaged six-month review timeline.
In July 2016 the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan estimated that seven reactors could restart by the end of March 2017, 12 more in the following year to March 2018, with significant reduction in fossil fuel imports. In relation to local judicial rulings which might hinder restarts, the report noted: "As a rule, if one nuclear plant with a capacity of 1 GWe stops operation for one year in an area where annual demand is about 100 TWh, total fossil fuel costs increase by JPY60 billion and the energy-related CO2 emissions increase by 4 million tonnes CO2 (7% locally). The average electricity unit cost will increase by JPY400/MWh (1.8%)."
Public opinion
A number of public opinion polls were taken in April and May 2011 following the Fukushima accident. Those in April showed around 50% supported the use of nuclear power at present or increased levels, but as the crisis dragged on the May polls showed a reduction in support to around 40% and a growth in opinion to over 40% of those wanting to decrease it. A steady 15% or so through May- June 2011 wanted it abolished. In March 2013, the proportion opting for increase or status quo had dropped to 22%, while 53% wanted to decrease it and 20% wanted to abolish it.
A poll taken in February 2015 by the Mizuho Information & Research Institute of Japan asked whether or not the respondent would use nuclear-generated electricity if the costs were the same or less than they were that month, and 67% said “yes.” Only 32% replied in the negative. This contrasts with a number of media polls with voluntary and hence non-representative participation, and the distortion is compounded by a 2012 news media survey finding that 47 of the 50 most popular press outlets in Japan said they were antinuclear.